Market Downturn? The Climax of Heavy Truck May be in 2020
Beginning in July 2018, the heavy truck market has gone down, and the sales volume has dropped, and the heavy truck market will be weak.
Don't panic, after 2018, many infrastructure projects in 2019 will greatly increase blood transfusion in the heavy truck market. At the same time, the “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War” has also brought a lot of updated sales to the heavy truck market. These two factors are superimposed. It is expected that the peak of heavy truck sales will be formed again in 2020. The “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War” may become an important factor supporting the sales of heavy trucks in 2019 and 2020.
● Blue Sky Defence War is one of the three major battles of the recent government
The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2017 put forward: "In accordance with the requirements of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in the next three years, we must focus on the three major battles of preventing and resolving major risks, ensuring poverty alleviation and pollution prevention and control in building a well-off society in an all-round way." It is seen that pollution prevention and control is one of the three major battles of the country in the three years from 2018 to 2020.
How important these three major battles are, the author is here to give an example. For example, the leadership of a city has been promoted to the leadership position in the province, but because the task of getting rid of poverty in the city has not been completed, it is impossible to step down from the leadership position in the city until the task of poverty alleviation is completed. It can be seen that for local governments, the completion of these three major challenges is a rigid requirement.
In order to win the battle against pollution, the State Council issued the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War" on July 3, 2018. The plan clearly pointed out: "Strongly eliminate old vehicles. The key areas will adopt economic compensation, restricted use, and strict over-standard emission supervision, etc., and vigorously promote the early phase-out of diesel trucks operating in the national and tertiary emission standards."
The plan also gives the number of diesel vehicles in several key regions to update the country: "Before the end of 2020, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas, the flood plains will be eliminated from the country's discharge standards and operate more than 1 million medium- and heavy-duty diesel trucks. ”
It can be seen from this plan that by the end of 2020, at least one million diesel vehicles in the operating country will be eliminated at least in the country. Since half of the 2018 has passed, and many places follow up with policies for a period of time, it is expected that 2019 and 2020 will be the peak of the national triple card. In particular, 2020 is the last year to win the battle against the blue sky. In order to win this war, the key regional governments that control pollution will inevitably eliminate the medium and heavy-duty trucks discharged before and after the end of 2020.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that in 2019, compared with 2018, there will be more heavy truck sales from the early update demand of the national diesel heavy truck, and the number of eliminations in 2020 should be more.
● Implementation policies are implemented everywhere to encourage the elimination of diesel engines
With the issuance of the State Council’s “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, various ministries and local governments began to formulate specific measures.
On July 10, 2018, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Implementation Opinions on Strengthening Ecological Environment Protection and Resolutely Fighting Pollution Prevention and Control". One of them is specifically the “Special Action for Pollution Control of Diesel Trucks”, which reaffirmed the early phase-out of the diesel trucks operating in the third and lower countries, and reaffirmed the number of 1 million vehicles: “Repealed with the relevant departments to update a batch of high "Emission of old diesel trucks", "Strengthening the early phase-out of diesel trucks operating in the third and lower states", and "Before the end of 2020, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas, and the plains will eliminate 1 million medium and heavy-duty diesel trucks operating in the country and below. the above."
According to the data of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, there are currently about 2.3 million vehicles in the country and the previous heavy trucks that need to be eliminated. Among them, in the key areas of pollution prevention and control in more than 40 cities in 15 provinces, it is expected to phase out 1 million national three diesel vehicles in three years. These key areas have basically issued specific implementation plans for the three-year action to win the blue sky defense war, including incentives for the early phase-out of the national three diesel vehicles.
All local defenses to prevent pollution and defend the blue sky were launched in an all-round way, and the specific implementation plan of the State Council’s “Three-Year Winning Blue Sky Defence War Action” was released (see Fangde.com’s “2.3 million National Triple Cards will be eliminated! All provinces and cities nationwide” Elimination time and policy encyclopedia! (with subsidy standards)" article).
Undoubtedly, in the three-year plan, 2018 is the policy year, and the elimination of the national three-zhong heavy trucks is being carried out from point to point. The peaks are implemented in 2019 and 2020, especially the last one completed in 2020. In the year, it will be the culmination of the elimination of the national three diesel vehicles.
● After 2021, heavy truck sales may enter a rapid decline phase
In fact, in addition to the role of speeding up the elimination of the national triple card, there are also many requirements to reduce the operation of medium and heavy-duty diesel vehicles. For example: “Optimize the adjustment of cargo transportation structure. Increase the proportion of railway freight transportation. By 2020, the national railway freight volume will increase by 30% compared with 2017, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas will increase by 40%, and the Yangtze River Delta region will increase by 10%. The growth rate is 25%.” “Strengthly promote the sea-rail combined transport, the annual average volume of containerized iron and water transportation in key ports nationwide increased by more than 10%.” “Strengthen the coal transportation volume of railway lines such as Zhangtang and Wag. In the Bohai Rim region, Shandong Province, In the Yangtze River Delta region, before the end of 2018, the major coastal ports and the coal ports of Tangshan Port and Huanghua Port will be transported by rail or water. Before the heating season in 2020, the major coastal ports and the ore and coke of Tangshan Port and Huanghua Port will be bulk cargo. In principle, it will be mainly transported by rail or waterway. Key enterprises such as iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum, electric power and coking should speed up the construction of special railway lines, make full use of the existing railway special line capacity, and greatly increase the proportion of railway transportation. In 2020, the key areas will reach 50%. the above."
The Ministry of Transport's "Transportation Service Defends the Building of a Well-off Society in an All-round Way to Open a Three-Year Action Plan for the New-Building of a Socialist Modernized Country (2018-2020)" also has the requirement to adjust the transportation structure, that is, increase railway and waterway transportation. Than, reduce road transport.
Therefore, it can be expected that from 2020, the proportion of rail and water transport will increase significantly in bulk cargo transportation, and the demand for heavy trucks to transport bulk cargo will be greatly reduced.
In addition, if today's developed countries are China's tomorrow, and the number of heavy trucks in developed countries is much lower than that of China (the heavy truck sales in Europe and the United States are not as good as China's), on the one hand, the proportion of engineering vehicles is small, and the other is On the one hand, the proportion of bulk cargo such as coal and iron transported by truck is small. This means that after the high-speed operation of China's heavy-duty trucks, it is likely to begin to decline in 2021. At the same time, after the completion of the three-year action plan for winning the Blue Sky Defence, the national diesel vehicles have basically been eliminated. The National Sixth diesel and the National Sixth diesel are relatively expensive, so the competitiveness of diesel heavy trucks will be lower than pure electric heavy trucks or other modes of transportation.
The combination of many negative factors may lead to a significant drop in the average annual sales of heavy trucks after 2021.